Demand and cash conversion must recover before initiation.
NO_BUY. Evidence is insufficient. The point composite is unavailable; exact rubric bounds are 24.125 to 64.125 under the reviewed phase6-turnaround-v1 policy. No positive buy plan.
- Posture
- NO_BUY. Evidence is insufficient. The point composite is unavailable; exact rubric bounds are 24.125 to 64.125 under the reviewed phase6-turnaround-v1 policy. No positive buy plan.
- Business phase
- 6
- Next proof
- Review operating recovery, Reassess score gaps
- Valuation
- Unavailable
| # | KPI | Baseline | Next threshold | Signal | Investor read | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RevenueQ1 FY2027 | $11.2B | Stay at or above $11.2B | At threshold | The KPI is exactly at the decision boundary; the next update matters. | Revenue official source (2026-10-01) |
| 2 | Gross profitQ1 FY2027 | $4.8B | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -2.9% YoY | Gross profit official source (2026-10-01) |
| 3 | Gross marginQ1 FY2027 | 42.8% | Stay at or above 42.8% | At threshold | The KPI is exactly at the decision boundary; the next update matters. | Gross margin official source (2026-10-01) |
| 4 | Cash and equivalentsQ1 FY2027 | $6.9B | Next comparable update | Monitor | No compatible prior observation | Cash and equivalents official source (2026-10-01) |
| 5 | Operating marginQ1 FY2027 | 7.92% | Stay at or above 7.92% | At threshold | The KPI is exactly at the decision boundary; the next update matters. | Operating margin official source (2026-10-01) |
| 6 | Operating income / EBITQ1 FY2027 | $888M | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -4.2% YoY | Operating income / EBIT official source (2026-10-01) |
| 7 | Net income attributable to commonQ1 FY2027 | $712M | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -2.1% YoY | Net income attributable to common official source (2026-10-01) |
| 8 | Current AssetsQ1 FY2027 | $23.7B | Next comparable update | Monitor | No compatible prior observation | Current Assets official source (2026-10-01) |
| 9 | Diluted EPSQ1 FY2027 | 0.48 | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -2.0% YoY | Diluted EPS official source (2026-10-01) |
| 10 | Total debtQ1 FY2027 | $7.9B | Next comparable update | Monitor | No compatible prior observation | Total debt official source (2026-10-01) |
| 11 | Diluted weighted-average sharesQ1 FY2027 | 1.5B | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | +0.4% YoY | Diluted weighted-average shares official source (2026-10-01) |
| 12 | Current LiabilitiesQ1 FY2027 | $11.4B | Next comparable update | Monitor | No compatible prior observation | Current Liabilities official source (2026-10-01) |
How to read the scorecard: Signals compare the latest baseline with the stated decision threshold. “Monitor” means the public handoff has one valid baseline but no compatible prior observation; it is not a positive or negative call.
KPI ontology coverage
Company definitions: 13. Coverage: Shared registry has no athletic consumer brands module. Run-local NIKE channel, geographic and subsidiary definitions provide company-specific coverage; software and technology modules are inapplicable.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.
| Module | Level | Version |
|---|---|---|
| Special situations | cross_cutting | v1 |
| Universal financial core | universal | v1 |
| Company definition | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Converse Revenue | Converse subsidiary reported revenue | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Current Assets | Consolidated total current assets at fiscal quarter end | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Current Debt | Current portion of long-term borrowings, excluding current operating lease liabilities | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Current Liabilities | Consolidated total current liabilities at fiscal quarter end | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Greater China Revenue | NIKE Brand Greater China geographic segment revenue at reported exchange rates | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Income Tax Expense | Consolidated GAAP income tax expense | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Interest Income Expense Net | Interest income/expense net, expense-positive and income-negative | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Inventory | Consolidated inventory at fiscal quarter end | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Long Term Debt | Noncurrent interest-bearing borrowings, excluding operating lease liabilities | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Nike Direct Revenue | NIKE Brand sales through NIKE Direct, excluding Converse and Corporate; historical release bullets rounded to USD0.1bn | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Total Assets | Consolidated total assets | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Total Equity | Consolidated shareholders equity at fiscal quarter end | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Wholesale Revenue | NIKE Brand sales to wholesale customers, excluding Converse and Corporate; historical release bullets rounded to USD0.1bn | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
Quarterly KPI trajectory
Coverage: 100 reported observations across a 12-quarter snapshot; 36 explicit gaps. 24 derived from aligned ytd, 76 reported. Acquisition status: not public.
| KPI | Current | Previous quarter | Year ago | QoQ | YoY | Eight-quarter trend | Management explanation | Investor interpretation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $23.7B (Q1 FY2027) | — | — | — | — | $23.7B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Current Liabilities | $11.4B (Q1 FY2027) | — | — | — | — | $11.4B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Cash and equivalents | $6.9B (Q1 FY2027) | — | — | — | — | $6.9B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Diluted EPS | 0.48 (Q1 FY2027) | 0.72 (Q4 FY2026) | 0.49 (Q1 FY2026) | -33.3% | -2.0% | 0.78 → 0.54 → 0.14 → 0.49 → 0.53 → 0.35 → 0.72 → 0.48 | The Q1 FY2027 statement shows nearly unchanged year-on-year pretax income but higher tax expense and a higher effective rate; NIKE attributes the rate increase primarily to foreign tax audit settlements. This supports a tax component of net-income and EPS movement, not a quantified explanation of the full sequential decline. The quarter-on-quarter residual remains unexplained. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | 1.5B (Q1 FY2027) | 1.5B (Q4 FY2026) | 1.5B (Q1 FY2026) | +0.1% | +0.4% | 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B → 1.5B | No supported explanation | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Gross margin | 42.8% (Q1 FY2027) | 49.2% (Q4 FY2026) | 42.2% (Q1 FY2026) | -640 bps | +60 bps | 43.6% → 41.5% → 40.3% → 42.2% → 40.6% → 40.2% → 49.2% → 42.8% | NIKE attributes the Q1 FY2027 year-on-year gross-margin improvement to lower warehousing and logistics costs. This is not a quantified quarter-on-quarter bridge; Q4 FY2026 also included a tariff-recovery benefit. The remaining sequential change is unexplained in the curated driver model. (unknown) | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Gross profit | $4.8B (Q1 FY2027) | $5.4B (Q4 FY2026) | $4.9B (Q1 FY2026) | -11.0% | -2.9% | $5.4B → $4.7B → $4.5B → $4.9B → $5B → $4.5B → $5.4B → $4.8B | NIKE attributes the Q1 FY2027 year-on-year gross-margin improvement to lower warehousing and logistics costs. This is not a quantified quarter-on-quarter bridge; Q4 FY2026 also included a tariff-recovery benefit. The remaining sequential change is unexplained in the curated driver model. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Net income attributable to common | $712M (Q1 FY2027) | $1.1B (Q4 FY2026) | $727M (Q1 FY2026) | -33.4% | -2.1% | $1.2B → $794M → $211M → $727M → $792M → $520M → $1.1B → $712M | The Q1 FY2027 statement shows nearly unchanged year-on-year pretax income but higher tax expense and a higher effective rate; NIKE attributes the rate increase primarily to foreign tax audit settlements. This supports a tax component of net-income and EPS movement, not a quantified explanation of the full sequential decline. The quarter-on-quarter residual remains unexplained. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Operating income / EBIT | $888M (Q1 FY2027) | $1.3B (Q4 FY2026) | $927M (Q1 FY2026) | -32.3% | -4.2% | $1.4B → $788M → $321M → $927M → $1B → $553M → $1.3B → $888M | No supported explanation | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Operating margin | 7.92% (Q1 FY2027) | 11.9% (Q4 FY2026) | 7.91% (Q1 FY2026) | -403 bps | +1 bps | 11.2% → 6.99% → 2.89% → 7.91% → 8.1% → 4.9% → 11.9% → 7.92% | Explicit unexplained driver record. Margin is the GAAP gross-profit-less-SG&A subtotal divided by revenue. Material quarterly moves remain without a complete quantified price, mix, markdown, tariff and overhead bridge. The prior-quarter tariff recovery makes simple sequential normalization unreliable. (unknown) | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Revenue | $11.2B (Q1 FY2027) | $11B (Q4 FY2026) | $11.7B (Q1 FY2026) | +2.2% | -4.3% | $12.4B → $11.3B → $11.1B → $11.7B → $12.4B → $11.3B → $11B → $11.2B | No supported explanation | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Total debt | $7.9B (Q1 FY2027) | — | — | — | — | $7.9B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
Complete 12-quarter reported history
| KPI | Period | Value | QoQ | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | Q1 FY2027 | $6.9B | — | — | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Current Assets | Q1 FY2027 | $23.7B | — | — | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Current Liabilities | Q1 FY2027 | $11.4B | — | — | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2027 | 0.48 | -33.3% | -2.0% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Diluted EPS | Q4 FY2026 | 0.72 | +105.7% | +414.3% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2026 | 0.35 | -34.0% | -35.2% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2026 | 0.53 | +8.2% | -32.1% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2026 | 0.49 | +250.0% | -30.0% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Diluted EPS | Q4 FY2025 | 0.14 | -74.1% | -85.9% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2025 | 0.54 | -30.8% | -29.9% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2025 | 0.78 | +11.4% | -24.3% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2025 | 0.7 | -29.3% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Diluted EPS | Q4 FY2024 | 0.99 | +28.6% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2024 | 0.77 | -25.2% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2024 | 1.03 | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2027 | 1.5B | +0.1% | +0.4% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2026 | 1.5B | +0.1% | +0.4% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2026 | 1.5B | +0.0% | +0.1% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2026 | 1.5B | +0.1% | -0.6% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2026 | 1.5B | +0.1% | -1.5% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2025 | 1.5B | -0.2% | -2.6% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2025 | 1.5B | -0.6% | -3.0% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2025 | 1.5B | -0.8% | -2.7% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2025 | 1.5B | -1.0% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2024 | 1.5B | -0.6% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2024 | 1.5B | -0.4% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2024 | 1.5B | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2027 | 42.8% | -640 bps | +60 bps | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2026 | 49.2% | +900 bps | +890 bps | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2026 | 40.2% | -40 bps | -130 bps | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2026 | 40.6% | -160 bps | -300 bps | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2026 | 42.2% | +190 bps | -320 bps | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2025 | 40.3% | -120 bps | -440 bps | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2025 | 41.5% | -210 bps | -330 bps | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2025 | 43.6% | -180 bps | -100 bps | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2025 | 45.4% | +70 bps | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2024 | 44.7% | -10 bps | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2024 | 44.8% | +20 bps | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2024 | 44.6% | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2027 | $4.8B | -11.0% | -2.9% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2026 | $5.4B | +19.1% | +20.7% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2026 | $4.5B | -10.2% | -3.1% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2026 | $5B | +2.1% | -6.4% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2026 | $4.9B | +10.6% | -6.0% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2025 | $4.5B | -4.4% | -20.7% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2025 | $4.7B | -13.2% | -15.9% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2025 | $5.4B | +2.5% | -9.7% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2025 | $5.3B | -6.7% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2024 | $5.6B | +1.3% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2024 | $5.6B | -6.8% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2024 | $6B | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2027 | $712M | -33.4% | -2.1% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2026 | $1.1B | +105.6% | +406.6% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2026 | $520M | -34.3% | -34.5% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2026 | $792M | +8.9% | -31.9% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2026 | $727M | +244.5% | -30.8% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2025 | $211M | -73.4% | -85.9% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2025 | $794M | -31.7% | -32.3% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2025 | $1.2B | +10.7% | -26.3% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2025 | $1.1B | -29.9% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2024 | $1.5B | +28.0% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2024 | $1.2B | -25.7% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2024 | $1.6B | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2027 | $888M | -32.3% | -4.2% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2026 | $1.3B | +137.1% | +308.4% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2026 | $553M | -45.0% | -29.8% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2026 | $1B | +8.5% | -27.3% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2026 | $927M | +188.8% | -23.3% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2025 | $321M | -59.3% | -79.2% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2025 | $788M | -43.1% | -41.0% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2025 | $1.4B | +14.5% | -24.2% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2025 | $1.2B | -21.8% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2024 | $1.5B | +15.7% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2024 | $1.3B | -26.8% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2024 | $1.8B | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2027 | 7.92% | -403 bps | +1 bps | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2026 | 11.9% | +705 bps | +906 bps | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2026 | 4.9% | -319 bps | -209 bps | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2026 | 8.1% | +19 bps | -311 bps | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2026 | 7.91% | +502 bps | -252 bps | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2025 | 2.89% | -410 bps | -937 bps | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2025 | 6.99% | -421 bps | -376 bps | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2025 | 11.2% | +77 bps | -243 bps | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2025 | 10.4% | -183 bps | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2024 | 12.3% | +151 bps | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2024 | 10.7% | -288 bps | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2024 | 13.6% | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2027 | $11.2B | +2.2% | -4.3% | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2026 | $11B | -2.7% | -1.1% | Primary source (2026-06-30) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2026 | $11.3B | -9.2% | +0.1% | Primary source (2026-03-31) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2026 | $12.4B | +6.0% | +0.6% | Primary source (2025-12-18) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2026 | $11.7B | +5.6% | +1.1% | Primary source (2025-09-30) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2025 | $11.1B | -1.5% | -12.0% | Primary source (2025-06-26) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2025 | $11.3B | -8.8% | -9.3% | Primary source (2025-03-20) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2025 | $12.4B | +6.6% | -7.7% | Primary source (2024-12-19) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2025 | $11.6B | -8.1% | — | Primary source (2024-10-01) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2024 | $12.6B | +1.4% | — | Primary source (2024-06-27) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2024 | $12.4B | -7.2% | — | Primary source (2024-03-21) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2024 | $13.4B | — | — | Primary source (2023-12-21) |
| Total debt | Q1 FY2027 | $7.9B | — | — | Primary source (2026-10-01) |
Thesis signals
Thesis pillars
- Demand stabilizes on a comparable basisLatest revenue remains below the year-ago quarter. Genuine repair requires comparable stabilization rather than a seasonal sequential bounce.
- Gross economics recover without one-off relianceGross-margin improvement can reflect operational cost repair, but repeated exceptional credits cannot establish durable pricing power.
- Operating profit funds a continuing franchiseA positive operating subtotal supports a continuing turnaround, with SBC, rent and reinvestment retained. It does not independently clear the evidence gate.
Catalysts
- Next reported release and filingNew comparable demand, profitability and cash evidence may support or falsify repair. Exact next event date is not admitted.
Risks
- Demand and promotion pressure persistsRevenue stabilization may fail while sourcing, marketing and inventory needs constrain earnings durability.
- Mandatory signal evidence remains incompleteAnalyst gate: preserve insufficient_evidence and NO_BUY until synchronized ownership, revenue revisions and compatible relative-value inputs can be reassessed.
Monitoring triggers
- Review operating recovery
- Reassess score gaps
Evidence limits
Conflicts
- None reported.
Gaps
- None reported.
Public sources
- Primary source (2026-10-01)
- Primary source (2026-10-01)
- Primary source (2026-06-30)
- Primary source (2026-03-31)
- Primary source (2025-12-18)
- Primary source (2025-09-30)
- Primary source (2025-06-26)
- Primary source (2025-03-20)
- Primary source (2024-12-19)
- Primary source (2024-10-01)
- Primary source (2024-06-27)
- Primary source (2024-03-21)
- Primary source (2023-12-21)