scaled growth with strong margins but volatile cash conversion
HOLD; valuation support is insufficient under a SOFT BLOCK
- Posture
- HOLD; valuation support is insufficient under a SOFT BLOCK
- Business phase
- 5
- Next proof
- Quarterly operating proof
- Valuation
- Unavailable
| # | KPI | Baseline | Next threshold | Signal | Investor read | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RevenueQ2 FY2026 | $12.6B | Stay at or above $12B | Near threshold | The KPI is still on the safe side, but close enough that the next update matters. | Revenue official source (2026-07-17) |
| 2 | Operating income / EBITQ2 FY2026 | $4.2B | Next comparable update | Improving | +11.1% YoY | Operating income / EBIT official source (2026-07-17) |
| 3 | Operating marginQ2 FY2026 | 33.4% | At least 30% | Confirmed | The latest result clears the confirmation threshold. | Operating margin official source (2026-07-17) |
| 4 | Free cash flowQ2 FY2026 | $1.5B | Stay at or above $1.5B | Near threshold | The KPI is still on the safe side, but close enough that the next update matters. | Free cash flow official source (2026-07-16) |
| 5 | Diluted EPSQ2 FY2026 | 0.8 | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -88.9% YoY | Diluted EPS official source (2026-07-17) |
| 6 | Gross profitQ2 FY2026 | $6.5B | Next comparable update | Improving | +13.4% YoY | Gross profit official source (2026-07-17) |
| 7 | Total debtQ2 FY2026 | $14.3B | Stay at or below $16B | Below ceiling | The latest result remains on the safe side of the warning threshold. | Total debt official source (2026-07-17) |
| 8 | Net income attributable to commonQ2 FY2026 | $3.4B | Next comparable update | Improving | +8.8% YoY | Net income attributable to common official source (2026-07-17) |
| 9 | Operating cash flowQ2 FY2026 | $1.7B | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | -28.0% YoY | Operating cash flow official source (2026-07-17) |
| 10 | Gross marginQ2 FY2026 | 51.9% | Next comparable update | Improving | +0 bps YoY | Gross margin official source (2026-07-17) |
| 11 | Current AssetsQ2 FY2026 | $13.9B | Next comparable update | Insufficient_Data | Comparable history available | Current Assets official source (2026-07-17) |
| 12 | Capital expendituresQ2 FY2026 | $218.6M | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | +40.3% YoY | Capital expenditures official source (2026-07-16) |
| 13 | Diluted weighted-average sharesQ2 FY2026 | 4.3B | Next comparable update | Deteriorating | +879.9% YoY | Diluted weighted-average shares official source (2026-07-17) |
| 14 | Cash and equivalentsQ2 FY2026 | $9.1B | Next comparable update | Insufficient_Data | Comparable history available | Cash and equivalents official source (2026-07-17) |
| 15 | Current LiabilitiesQ2 FY2026 | $12.1B | Next comparable update | Insufficient_Data | Comparable history available | Current Liabilities official source (2026-07-17) |
How to read the scorecard: Signals compare the latest baseline with the stated decision threshold. “Monitor” means the public handoff has one valid baseline but no compatible prior observation; it is not a positive or negative call.
KPI ontology coverage
Company definitions: 0. Coverage: No compatible sector, subsector, or business-model module was evidenced.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.
| Module | Level | Version |
|---|---|---|
| Special situations | cross_cutting | v1 |
| Universal financial core | universal | v1 |
Quarterly KPI trajectory
Coverage: 127 reported observations across a 12-quarter snapshot; 9 explicit gaps. 47 derived from aligned ytd, 80 reported. Acquisition status: not public.
| KPI | Current | Previous quarter | Year ago | QoQ | YoY | Eight-quarter trend | Management explanation | Investor interpretation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $13.9B (Q2 FY2026) | — | — | — | — | $13.9B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Current Liabilities | $12.1B (Q2 FY2026) | — | — | — | — | $12.1B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Capital expenditures | $218.6M (Q2 FY2026) | $196.1M (Q1 FY2026) | $155.9M (Q2 FY2025) | +11.5% | +40.3% | $75.7M → $78.3M → $126.9M → $128.3M → $155.9M → $164.7M → $196.1M → $218.6M | Management attributes the year-over-year increase in purchases of property and equipment to higher spending in the quarter; the filing quantifies the increase at $63 million. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-16) |
| Cash and equivalents | $9.1B (Q2 FY2026) | — | — | — | — | $9.1B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Diluted EPS | 0.8 (Q2 FY2026) | 1.23 (Q1 FY2026) | 7.19 (Q2 FY2025) | -35.0% | -88.9% | 5.28 → 4.88 → 5.4 → 6.61 → 7.19 → 5.87 → 1.23 → 0.8 | The filed Q2 diluted EPS was lower than Q1; the approved evidence set does not contain a standalone management quarter-over-quarter EPS bridge, so the residual is explicitly retained as unexplained. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | 4.3B (Q2 FY2026) | 4.3B (Q1 FY2026) | 434.9M (Q2 FY2025) | -0.9% | +879.9% | 437.9M → -496000 → 437M → 434.9M → 434M → 3.9B → 4.3B → 4.3B | No supported explanation | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Free cash flow | $1.5B (Q2 FY2026) | $5.1B (Q1 FY2026) | $2.3B (Q2 FY2025) | -70.1% | -32.7% | $2.1B → $1.2B → $2.2B → $2.7B → $2.3B → $2.7B → $5.1B → $1.5B | Management attributes the year-over-year reduction in operating cash flow, and therefore free cash flow, to higher content-asset payments and unfavorable working-capital movements, partly offset by higher net income and non-cash adjustments. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-16) |
| Gross margin | 51.9% (Q2 FY2026) | 51.9% (Q1 FY2026) | 51.9% (Q2 FY2025) | +0 bps | +0 bps | 47.9% → 43.7% → 50.1% → 51.9% → 46.4% → 45.9% → 51.9% → 51.9% | No supported explanation | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Gross profit | $6.5B (Q2 FY2026) | $6.4B (Q1 FY2026) | $5.8B (Q2 FY2025) | +2.5% | +13.4% | $4.7B → $4.5B → $5.3B → $5.8B → $5.3B → $5.5B → $6.4B → $6.5B | No supported explanation | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Net income attributable to common | $3.4B (Q2 FY2026) | $5.3B (Q1 FY2026) | $3.1B (Q2 FY2025) | -35.6% | +8.8% | $2.4B → $1.9B → $2.9B → $3.1B → $2.5B → $2.4B → $5.3B → $3.4B | The filing reports higher Q2 net income year over year, but the approved evidence set has no standalone management bridge for its quarter-over-quarter move; the residual is explicitly retained as unexplained. (unknown) | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating cash flow | $1.7B (Q2 FY2026) | $5.3B (Q1 FY2026) | $2.4B (Q2 FY2025) | -67.0% | -28.0% | $2.3B → $1.5B → $2.8B → $2.4B → $2.8B → $2.1B → $5.3B → $1.7B | Management attributes the year-over-year operating-cash-flow decrease to higher content-asset payments and unfavorable working-capital changes, partly offset by higher net income and non-cash adjustments. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating income / EBIT | $4.2B (Q2 FY2026) | $4B (Q1 FY2026) | $3.8B (Q2 FY2025) | +6.0% | +11.1% | $2.9B → $2.3B → $3.3B → $3.8B → $3.2B → $3B → $4B → $4.2B | No supported explanation | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating margin | 33.4% (Q2 FY2026) | 32.3% (Q1 FY2026) | 34.1% (Q2 FY2025) | +108 bps | -69 bps | 29.6% → 22.2% → 31.7% → 34.1% → 28.2% → 24.5% → 32.3% → 33.4% | The reported Q2 operating margin declined quarter over quarter; no standalone management quarter-over-quarter margin bridge was identified in the approved evidence set, so the residual is explicitly retained as unexplained. (unknown) | deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Revenue | $12.6B (Q2 FY2026) | $12.2B (Q1 FY2026) | $11.1B (Q2 FY2025) | +2.5% | +13.4% | $9.8B → $10.2B → $10.5B → $11.1B → $11.5B → $12.1B → $12.2B → $12.6B | No supported explanation | improving; no threshold configured; confidence high | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Total debt | $14.3B (Q2 FY2026) | — | — | — | — | $14.3B | No supported explanation | insufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence low | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
Complete 12-quarter reported history
| KPI | Period | Value | QoQ | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditures | Q2 FY2026 | $218.6M | +11.5% | +40.3% | Primary source (2026-07-16) |
| Capital expenditures | Q1 FY2026 | $196.1M | — | +52.9% | Primary source (2026-04-16) |
| Capital expenditures | Q3 FY2025 | $164.7M | +5.7% | +29.8% | Primary source (2025-10-21) |
| Capital expenditures | Q2 FY2025 | $155.9M | +21.5% | +99.1% | Primary source (2025-07-17) |
| Capital expenditures | Q1 FY2025 | $128.3M | — | +69.4% | Primary source (2025-04-17) |
| Capital expenditures | Q3 FY2024 | $126.9M | +62.0% | +22.1% | Primary source (2024-10-17) |
| Capital expenditures | Q2 FY2024 | $78.3M | +3.4% | — | Primary source (2024-07-18) |
| Capital expenditures | Q1 FY2024 | $75.7M | — | — | Primary source (2024-04-18) |
| Capital expenditures | Q3 FY2023 | $103.9M | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Cash and equivalents | Q2 FY2026 | $9.1B | — | — | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Current Assets | Q2 FY2026 | $13.9B | — | — | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Current Liabilities | Q2 FY2026 | $12.1B | — | — | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2026 | 0.8 | -35.0% | -88.9% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2026 | 1.23 | — | -81.4% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2025 | 5.87 | -18.4% | +8.7% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2025 | 7.19 | +8.8% | +47.3% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2025 | 6.61 | — | +25.2% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2024 | 5.4 | +10.7% | — | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Diluted EPS | Q2 FY2024 | 4.88 | -7.6% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Diluted EPS | Q1 FY2024 | 5.28 | — | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Diluted EPS | Q3 FY2023 | 3.73 | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2026 | 4.3B | -0.9% | +879.9% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2026 | 4.3B | +10.0% | +883.7% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2025 | 3.9B | +800.5% | +788120.0% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2025 | 434M | -0.2% | -0.9% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2025 | 434.9M | -0.5% | -1.1% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2025 | 437M | +88197.2% | -1.1% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2024 | -496000 | -100.1% | +72.8% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2024 | 437.9M | -0.4% | -2.7% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q2 FY2024 | 439.7M | -0.4% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q1 FY2024 | 441.7M | +24353.4% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q4 FY2023 | -1.8M | -100.4% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Diluted weighted-average shares | Q3 FY2023 | 450M | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Free cash flow | Q2 FY2026 | $1.5B | -70.1% | -32.7% | Primary source (2026-07-16) |
| Free cash flow | Q1 FY2026 | $5.1B | — | +91.4% | Primary source (2026-04-16) |
| Free cash flow | Q3 FY2025 | $2.7B | +17.3% | +21.2% | Primary source (2025-10-21) |
| Free cash flow | Q2 FY2025 | $2.3B | -14.8% | +87.0% | Primary source (2025-07-17) |
| Free cash flow | Q1 FY2025 | $2.7B | — | +24.5% | Primary source (2025-04-17) |
| Free cash flow | Q3 FY2024 | $2.2B | +81.0% | +16.2% | Primary source (2024-10-17) |
| Free cash flow | Q2 FY2024 | $1.2B | -43.3% | — | Primary source (2024-07-18) |
| Free cash flow | Q1 FY2024 | $2.1B | — | — | Primary source (2024-04-18) |
| Free cash flow | Q3 FY2023 | $1.9B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2026 | 51.9% | +0 bps | +0 bps | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2026 | 51.9% | +606 bps | +185 bps | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2025 | 45.9% | -57 bps | +216 bps | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2025 | 46.4% | -549 bps | -144 bps | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2025 | 51.9% | +186 bps | +606 bps | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2025 | 50.1% | +636 bps | +319 bps | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2024 | 43.7% | -417 bps | +380 bps | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2024 | 47.9% | +201 bps | +561 bps | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Gross margin | Q2 FY2024 | 45.9% | -101 bps | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2024 | 46.9% | +697 bps | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Gross margin | Q4 FY2023 | 39.9% | -236 bps | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Gross margin | Q3 FY2023 | 42.3% | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2026 | $6.5B | +2.5% | +13.4% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2026 | $6.4B | +15.1% | +20.5% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2025 | $5.5B | +3.4% | +23.4% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2025 | $5.3B | -7.1% | +13.6% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2025 | $5.8B | +9.0% | +31.2% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2025 | $5.3B | +17.9% | +20.2% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2024 | $4.5B | -4.8% | +27.1% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2024 | $4.7B | +7.3% | +30.3% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Gross profit | Q2 FY2024 | $4.4B | -0.2% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Gross profit | Q1 FY2024 | $4.4B | +24.6% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Gross profit | Q4 FY2023 | $3.5B | -2.4% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Gross profit | Q3 FY2023 | $3.6B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2026 | $3.4B | -35.6% | +8.8% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2026 | $5.3B | +118.4% | +82.8% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2025 | $2.4B | -5.0% | +29.4% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2025 | $2.5B | -18.5% | +7.8% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2025 | $3.1B | +8.1% | +45.6% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2025 | $2.9B | +54.7% | +23.9% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2024 | $1.9B | -20.9% | +99.2% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2024 | $2.4B | +10.1% | +40.9% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q2 FY2024 | $2.1B | -7.9% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q1 FY2024 | $2.3B | +148.7% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q4 FY2023 | $937.8M | -44.1% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Net income attributable to common | Q3 FY2023 | $1.7B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Operating cash flow | Q2 FY2026 | $1.7B | -67.0% | -28.0% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating cash flow | Q1 FY2026 | $5.3B | +150.5% | +89.7% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Operating cash flow | Q4 FY2025 | $2.1B | -25.3% | +37.4% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Operating cash flow | Q3 FY2025 | $2.8B | +16.6% | +21.7% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Operating cash flow | Q2 FY2025 | $2.4B | -13.1% | +87.7% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Operating cash flow | Q1 FY2025 | $2.8B | +81.5% | +26.1% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Operating cash flow | Q4 FY2024 | $1.5B | -33.8% | -7.6% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Operating cash flow | Q3 FY2024 | $2.3B | +79.8% | +16.5% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Operating cash flow | Q2 FY2024 | $1.3B | -41.7% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Operating cash flow | Q1 FY2024 | $2.2B | +33.0% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Operating cash flow | Q4 FY2023 | $1.7B | -16.5% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Operating cash flow | Q3 FY2023 | $2B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2026 | $4.2B | +6.0% | +11.1% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2026 | $4B | +33.8% | +18.2% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2025 | $3B | -9.0% | +30.1% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2025 | $3.2B | -13.9% | +11.6% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2025 | $3.8B | +12.8% | +45.0% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2025 | $3.3B | +47.3% | +27.1% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2024 | $2.3B | -21.9% | +51.9% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2024 | $2.9B | +11.8% | +51.8% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q2 FY2024 | $2.6B | -1.1% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q1 FY2024 | $2.6B | +76.0% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q4 FY2023 | $1.5B | -21.9% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Operating income / EBIT | Q3 FY2023 | $1.9B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2026 | 33.4% | +108 bps | -69 bps | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2026 | 32.3% | +777 bps | +56 bps | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2025 | 24.5% | -369 bps | +235 bps | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2025 | 28.2% | -585 bps | -139 bps | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2025 | 34.1% | +232 bps | +684 bps | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2025 | 31.7% | +957 bps | +365 bps | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2024 | 22.2% | -743 bps | +524 bps | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2024 | 29.6% | +239 bps | +718 bps | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Operating margin | Q2 FY2024 | 27.2% | -87 bps | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Operating margin | Q1 FY2024 | 28.1% | +1116 bps | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Operating margin | Q4 FY2023 | 16.9% | -550 bps | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Operating margin | Q3 FY2023 | 22.4% | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2026 | $12.6B | +2.5% | +13.4% | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2026 | $12.2B | +1.7% | +16.2% | Primary source (2026-04-17) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2025 | $12.1B | +4.7% | +17.6% | Primary source (2026-01-23) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2025 | $11.5B | +3.9% | +17.2% | Primary source (2025-10-22) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% | +15.9% | Primary source (2025-07-18) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2025 | $10.5B | +2.9% | +12.5% | Primary source (2025-04-18) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2024 | $10.2B | +4.3% | +16.0% | Primary source (2025-01-27) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2024 | $9.8B | +2.8% | +15.0% | Primary source (2024-10-18) |
| Revenue | Q2 FY2024 | $9.6B | +2.0% | — | Primary source (2024-07-19) |
| Revenue | Q1 FY2024 | $9.4B | +6.1% | — | Primary source (2024-04-22) |
| Revenue | Q4 FY2023 | $8.8B | +3.4% | — | Primary source (2024-01-26) |
| Revenue | Q3 FY2023 | $8.5B | — | — | Primary source (2023-10-20) |
| Total debt | Q2 FY2026 | $14.3B | — | — | Primary source (2026-07-17) |
Thesis signals
Thesis pillars
- Global scale compounds revenuePricing, engagement, advertising and global distribution sustain revenue above the quarterly warning gate while funding the content slate.
- Operating leverage remains intactNetflix sustains operating margin at or above 30% while continuing to invest in content, advertising and product capabilities.
- Cash conversion catches up with earningsFree cash flow recovers from quarterly volatility and supports reinvestment and capital returns without dependence on rising leverage.
- Strategic expansion preserves per-share resilienceContent investment and acquisition activity do not push debt above the warning gate or reverse the decline in diluted shares.
Catalysts
- Advertising and pricing executionFaster monetisation with stable engagement can sustain revenue growth and operating leverage.
- Cash conversion recoverySequential FCF recovery would reduce the main gap between earnings quality and valuation support.
Risks
- Fixed content commitmentsLong-duration, largely fixed commitments can limit rapid adjustment when demand or content performance disappoints.
- Unquantified acquisition effectsThe locked model has no attributable acquired revenue, integration-cost or realised-synergy evidence for the latest quarter.
- Valuation sensitivityThe intrinsic FCFF range is terminal-value sensitive; the static package therefore presents assumptions and scenario dispersion without a market-price comparison.
Monitoring triggers
- Quarterly operating proofReview revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, diluted shares and debt after each quarterly filing.
Evidence limits
Conflicts
- None reported.
Gaps
- None reported.
Public sources
- Primary source (2026-07-17)
- Primary source (2026-07-16)
- Primary source (2026-04-17)
- Primary source (2026-04-16)
- Primary source (2026-01-23)
- Primary source (2025-10-22)
- Primary source (2025-10-21)
- Primary source (2025-07-18)
- Primary source (2025-07-17)
- Primary source (2025-04-18)
- Primary source (2025-04-17)
- Primary source (2025-01-27)
- Primary source (2024-10-18)
- Primary source (2024-10-17)
- Primary source (2024-07-19)
- Primary source (2024-07-18)
- Primary source (2024-04-22)
- Primary source (2024-04-18)
- Primary source (2024-01-26)
- Primary source (2023-10-20)