IBMIBM KPI Monitor
Public package
Public baseline through 2026-07-23

Mature cash compounder

Evidence-ready monitoring baseline

Posture
Evidence-ready monitoring baseline
Business phase
5
Next proof
Two-quarter Software deceleration, Free-cash-flow guidance reduction, Gross-margin deterioration
Valuation
Unavailable
Revenue
$17.2B
Q2 FY2026 · Revenue official source (2026-07-22)
Gross profit
$9.9B
Q2 FY2026 · Gross profit official source (2026-07-22)
Operating cash flow
$2.6B
Q2 FY2026 · Operating cash flow official source (2026-07-22)
Gross margin
57.7%
Q2 FY2026 · Gross margin official source (2026-07-22)
Capital expenditures
$359M
Q2 FY2026 · Capital expenditures official source (2026-07-22)

Ranked KPI scorecard

#KPIBaselineNext thresholdSignalInvestor readSource
1 RevenueQ2 FY2026 $17.2B Next comparable update Improving +1.1% YoY Revenue official source (2026-07-22)
2 Gross profitQ2 FY2026 $9.9B Next comparable update Deteriorating -0.7% YoY Gross profit official source (2026-07-22)
3 Operating cash flowQ2 FY2026 $2.6B Next comparable update Improving +52.7% YoY Operating cash flow official source (2026-07-22)
4 Gross marginQ2 FY2026 57.7% Next comparable update Deteriorating -110 bps YoY Gross margin official source (2026-07-22)
5 Capital expendituresQ2 FY2026 $359M Next comparable update Deteriorating +6.8% YoY Capital expenditures official source (2026-07-22)
6 Free cash flowQ2 FY2026 $2.5B Next comparable update Deteriorating -10.7% YoY Free cash flow official source (2026-07-22)
7 Total debtQ2 FY2026 $62B Stay at or below $65B Near threshold The KPI is still on the safe side, but close enough that the next update matters. Total debt official source (2026-07-23)
8 Net income attributable to commonQ2 FY2026 $2.2B Next comparable update Deteriorating -1.3% YoY Net income attributable to common official source (2026-07-22)
9 Diluted EPSQ2 FY2026 2.27 Next comparable update Deteriorating -1.7% YoY Diluted EPS official source (2026-07-22)
10 Diluted weighted-average sharesQ2 FY2026 953.3M Next comparable update Deteriorating +0.6% YoY Diluted weighted-average shares official source (2026-07-22)
11 Software revenueQ2 FY2026 $7.8B Next comparable update Improving +5.1% YoY Software revenue official source (2026-07-22)
12 Consulting revenueQ2 FY2026 $5.3B Next comparable update Improving +0.2% YoY Consulting revenue official source (2026-07-22)
13 Infrastructure revenueQ2 FY2026 $3.8B Next comparable update Deteriorating -7.4% YoY Infrastructure revenue official source (2026-07-22)
14 Interest ExpenseQ2 FY2026 $486M Next comparable update Improving -4.7% YoY Interest Expense official source (2026-07-22)

How to read the scorecard: Signals compare the latest baseline with the stated decision threshold. “Monitor” means the public handoff has one valid baseline but no compatible prior observation; it is not a positive or negative call.

KPI ontology coverage

Company definitions: 0. Coverage: Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.; Company definition is supported only by private or local provenance.

ModuleLevelVersion
Diversified technologysectorv1
Enterprise software and SaaSbusiness_modelv1
Special situationscross_cuttingv1
Universal financial coreuniversalv1

Quarterly KPI trajectory

Coverage: 157 reported observations across a 12-quarter snapshot; 1 explicit gaps. 157 reported. Acquisition status: active.

KPICurrentPrevious quarterYear agoQoQYoYEight-quarter trendManagement explanationInvestor interpretationSource
Interest Expense$486M (Q2 FY2026)$473M (Q1 FY2026)$510M (Q2 FY2025)+2.7%-4.7%$429M → $424M → $455M → $510M → $492M → $478M → $473M → $486MThe filed statements quantify the earnings, share-count and interest changes, but the current packet does not provide one complete metric-specific attribution; the remaining movement is treated as an explicit unexplained residual rather than inferred as a single operating cause. (unknown)improving; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Capital expenditures$359M (Q2 FY2026)$384M (Q1 FY2026)$336M (Q2 FY2025)-6.5%+6.8%$55M → $422M → $321M → $336M → $410M → $550M → $384M → $359MManagement described inventory build and front-loaded capital expenditure and cash-tax timing as the main first-half cash-flow drags, while retaining the full-year free-cash-flow expectation. (temporary)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Consulting revenue$5.3B (Q2 FY2026)$5.3B (Q1 FY2026)$5.3B (Q2 FY2025)+1.0%+0.2%$5.2B → $5.2B → $5.1B → $5.3B → $5.3B → $5.3B → $5.3B → $5.3BManagement attributed the late-quarter shortfall principally to client capital-expenditure timing and said the affected demand was deferred rather than destroyed; the durability of that explanation remains a monitoring question. (temporary)improving; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Diluted EPS2.27 (Q2 FY2026)1.28 (Q1 FY2026)2.31 (Q2 FY2025)+77.3%-1.7%-0.34 → 3.11 → 1.12 → 2.31 → 1.84 → 5.86 → 1.28 → 2.27The filed statements quantify the earnings, share-count and interest changes, but the current packet does not provide one complete metric-specific attribution; the remaining movement is treated as an explicit unexplained residual rather than inferred as a single operating cause. (unknown)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Diluted weighted-average shares953.3M (Q2 FY2026)952.1M (Q1 FY2026)948M (Q2 FY2025)+0.1%+0.6%923.6M → 942.4M → 945.4M → 948M → 948.9M → 952.4M → 952.1M → 953.3MThe filed statements quantify the earnings, share-count and interest changes, but the current packet does not provide one complete metric-specific attribution; the remaining movement is treated as an explicit unexplained residual rather than inferred as a single operating cause. (unknown)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Free cash flow$2.5B (Q2 FY2026)$2.2B (Q1 FY2026)$2.8B (Q2 FY2025)+14.4%-10.7%$2.1B → $6.2B → $2B → $2.8B → $2.4B → $7.6B → $2.2B → $2.5BManagement described inventory build and front-loaded capital expenditure and cash-tax timing as the main first-half cash-flow drags, while retaining the full-year free-cash-flow expectation. (temporary)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Gross margin57.7% (Q2 FY2026)56.2% (Q1 FY2026)58.8% (Q2 FY2025)+150 bps-110 bps56.3% → 59.5% → 55.2% → 58.8% → 57.3% → 60.6% → 56.2% → 57.7%Management linked gross-profit pressure to the revenue shortfall, business mix and acquisition dilution, partly offset by productivity actions. (unknown)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Gross profit$9.9B (Q2 FY2026)$9B (Q1 FY2026)$10B (Q2 FY2025)+10.7%-0.7%$8.4B → $10.4B → $8B → $10B → $9.4B → $11.9B → $9B → $9.9BManagement linked gross-profit pressure to the revenue shortfall, business mix and acquisition dilution, partly offset by productivity actions. (unknown)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Infrastructure revenue$3.8B (Q2 FY2026)$3.3B (Q1 FY2026)$4.1B (Q2 FY2025)+15.3%-7.4%$3B → $4.3B → $2.9B → $4.1B → $3.6B → $5.1B → $3.3B → $3.8BManagement attributed the late-quarter shortfall principally to client capital-expenditure timing and said the affected demand was deferred rather than destroyed; the durability of that explanation remains a monitoring question. (temporary)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Net income attributable to common$2.2B (Q2 FY2026)$1.2B (Q1 FY2026)$2.2B (Q2 FY2025)+78.0%-1.3%$-330M → $2.9B → $1.1B → $2.2B → $1.7B → $5.6B → $1.2B → $2.2BThe filed statements quantify the earnings, share-count and interest changes, but the current packet does not provide one complete metric-specific attribution; the remaining movement is treated as an explicit unexplained residual rather than inferred as a single operating cause. (unknown)deteriorating; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Operating cash flow$2.6B (Q2 FY2026)$5.2B (Q1 FY2026)$1.7B (Q2 FY2025)-49.8%+52.7%$2.9B → $4.3B → $4.4B → $1.7B → $3.1B → $4B → $5.2B → $2.6BManagement described inventory build and front-loaded capital expenditure and cash-tax timing as the main first-half cash-flow drags, while retaining the full-year free-cash-flow expectation. (temporary)improving; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Revenue$17.2B (Q2 FY2026)$15.9B (Q1 FY2026)$17B (Q2 FY2025)+7.8%+1.1%$15B → $17.6B → $14.5B → $17B → $16.3B → $19.7B → $15.9B → $17.2BManagement attributed the late-quarter shortfall principally to client capital-expenditure timing and said the affected demand was deferred rather than destroyed; the durability of that explanation remains a monitoring question. (temporary)improving; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Software revenue$7.8B (Q2 FY2026)$7.1B (Q1 FY2026)$7.4B (Q2 FY2025)+10.1%+5.1%$6.5B → $7.9B → $6.3B → $7.4B → $7.2B → $9B → $7.1B → $7.8BManagement attributed the late-quarter shortfall principally to client capital-expenditure timing and said the affected demand was deferred rather than destroyed; the durability of that explanation remains a monitoring question. (temporary)improving; no threshold configured; confidence highPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Total debt$62B (Q2 FY2026)$62BNo supported explanationinsufficient_data; no threshold configured; confidence lowPrimary source (2026-07-23)
Complete 12-quarter reported history
KPIPeriodValueQoQYoYSource
Capital expendituresQ2 FY2026$359M-6.5%+6.8%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Capital expendituresQ1 FY2026$384M-30.2%+19.6%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Capital expendituresQ4 FY2025$550M+34.1%+30.3%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Capital expendituresQ3 FY2025$410M+22.0%+645.5%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Capital expendituresQ2 FY2025$336M+4.7%-15.8%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Capital expendituresQ1 FY2025$321M-23.9%-11.1%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Capital expendituresQ4 FY2024$422M+667.3%+60.5%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Capital expendituresQ3 FY2024$55M-86.2%-80.5%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Capital expendituresQ2 FY2024$399M+10.5%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Capital expendituresQ1 FY2024$361M+37.3%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Capital expendituresQ4 FY2023$263M-6.7%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Capital expendituresQ3 FY2023$282MPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Consulting revenueQ2 FY2026$5.3B+1.0%+0.2%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Consulting revenueQ1 FY2026$5.3B-1.4%+4.0%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Consulting revenueQ4 FY2025$5.3B+0.5%+3.4%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Consulting revenueQ3 FY2025$5.3B+0.2%+3.3%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Consulting revenueQ2 FY2025$5.3B+4.9%+2.6%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Consulting revenueQ1 FY2025$5.1B-2.1%-2.3%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Consulting revenueQ4 FY2024$5.2B+0.4%+2.5%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Consulting revenueQ3 FY2024$5.2B-0.5%+3.8%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Consulting revenueQ2 FY2024$5.2B-0.1%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Consulting revenueQ1 FY2024$5.2B+2.7%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Consulting revenueQ4 FY2023$5B+1.7%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Consulting revenueQ3 FY2023$5BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Diluted EPSQ2 FY20262.27+77.3%-1.7%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Diluted EPSQ1 FY20261.28-78.2%+14.3%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Diluted EPSQ4 FY20255.86+218.5%+88.4%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Diluted EPSQ3 FY20251.84-20.3%+641.2%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Diluted EPSQ2 FY20252.31+106.2%+17.9%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Diluted EPSQ1 FY20251.12-64.0%-33.7%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Diluted EPSQ4 FY20243.11+1014.7%-12.1%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Diluted EPSQ3 FY2024-0.34-117.3%-118.3%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Diluted EPSQ2 FY20241.96+16.0%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Diluted EPSQ1 FY20241.69-52.3%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Diluted EPSQ4 FY20233.54+90.3%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Diluted EPSQ3 FY20231.86Primary source (2023-10-25)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ2 FY2026953.3M+0.1%+0.6%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ1 FY2026952.1M-0.0%+0.7%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ4 FY2025952.4M+0.4%+1.1%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ3 FY2025948.9M+0.1%+2.7%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ2 FY2025948M+0.3%+1.5%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ1 FY2025945.4M+0.3%+1.3%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ4 FY2024942.4M+2.0%+1.6%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ3 FY2024923.6M-1.2%-0.0%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ2 FY2024934.4M+0.1%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ1 FY2024933.4M+0.7%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ4 FY2023927.3M+0.4%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Diluted weighted-average sharesQ3 FY2023923.7MPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Free cash flowQ2 FY2026$2.5B+14.4%-10.7%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Free cash flowQ1 FY2026$2.2B-70.6%+13.1%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Free cash flowQ4 FY2025$7.6B+218.3%+22.6%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Free cash flowQ3 FY2025$2.4B-16.6%+15.0%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Free cash flowQ2 FY2025$2.8B+45.0%+8.9%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Free cash flowQ1 FY2025$2B-68.2%+2.7%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Free cash flowQ4 FY2024$6.2B+198.6%+1.2%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Free cash flowQ3 FY2024$2.1B-21.0%+22.7%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Free cash flowQ2 FY2024$2.6B+36.8%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Free cash flowQ1 FY2024$1.9B-68.6%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Free cash flowQ4 FY2023$6.1B+261.9%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Free cash flowQ3 FY2023$1.7BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Gross marginQ2 FY202657.7%+150 bps-110 bpsPrimary source (2026-07-22)
Gross marginQ1 FY202656.2%-440 bps+100 bpsPrimary source (2026-04-22)
Gross marginQ4 FY202560.6%+330 bps+110 bpsPrimary source (2026-01-28)
Gross marginQ3 FY202557.3%-150 bps+100 bpsPrimary source (2025-10-22)
Gross marginQ2 FY202558.8%+360 bps+200 bpsPrimary source (2025-07-23)
Gross marginQ1 FY202555.2%-430 bps+170 bpsPrimary source (2025-04-23)
Gross marginQ4 FY202459.5%+320 bps+40 bpsPrimary source (2025-01-29)
Gross marginQ3 FY202456.3%-50 bps+190 bpsPrimary source (2024-10-23)
Gross marginQ2 FY202456.8%+330 bpsPrimary source (2024-07-24)
Gross marginQ1 FY202453.5%-560 bpsPrimary source (2024-04-24)
Gross marginQ4 FY202359.1%+470 bpsPrimary source (2024-01-24)
Gross marginQ3 FY202354.4%Primary source (2023-10-25)
Gross profitQ2 FY2026$9.9B+10.7%-0.7%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Gross profitQ1 FY2026$9B-25.0%+11.4%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Gross profitQ4 FY2025$11.9B+27.4%+14.3%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Gross profitQ3 FY2025$9.4B-6.2%+11.2%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Gross profitQ2 FY2025$10B+24.2%+11.5%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Gross profitQ1 FY2025$8B-23.1%+3.7%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Gross profitQ4 FY2024$10.4B+24.0%+1.7%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Gross profitQ3 FY2024$8.4B-5.9%+4.9%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Gross profitQ2 FY2024$9B+15.6%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Gross profitQ1 FY2024$7.7B-24.6%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Gross profitQ4 FY2023$10.3B+28.0%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Gross profitQ3 FY2023$8BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Infrastructure revenueQ2 FY2026$3.8B+15.3%-7.4%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Infrastructure revenueQ1 FY2026$3.3B-35.2%+15.2%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Infrastructure revenueQ4 FY2025$5.1B+44.2%+20.6%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Infrastructure revenueQ3 FY2025$3.6B-14.1%+17.0%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Infrastructure revenueQ2 FY2025$4.1B+43.5%+13.6%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Infrastructure revenueQ1 FY2025$2.9B-32.2%-6.2%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Infrastructure revenueQ4 FY2024$4.3B+39.9%-7.6%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Infrastructure revenueQ3 FY2024$3B-16.5%-7.0%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Infrastructure revenueQ2 FY2024$3.6B+18.5%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Infrastructure revenueQ1 FY2024$3.1B-33.2%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Infrastructure revenueQ4 FY2023$4.6B+40.7%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Infrastructure revenueQ3 FY2023$3.3BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Interest ExpenseQ2 FY2026$486M+2.7%-4.7%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Interest ExpenseQ1 FY2026$473M-1.0%+4.0%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Interest ExpenseQ4 FY2025$478M-2.8%+12.7%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Interest ExpenseQ3 FY2025$492M-3.5%+14.7%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Interest ExpenseQ2 FY2025$510M+12.1%+19.4%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Interest ExpenseQ1 FY2025$455M+7.3%+5.3%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Interest ExpenseQ4 FY2024$424M-1.2%+4.7%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Interest ExpenseQ3 FY2024$429M+0.5%+4.1%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Interest ExpenseQ2 FY2024$427M-1.2%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Interest ExpenseQ1 FY2024$432M+6.7%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Interest ExpenseQ4 FY2023$405M-1.7%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Interest ExpenseQ3 FY2023$412MPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Net income attributable to commonQ2 FY2026$2.2B+78.0%-1.3%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Net income attributable to commonQ1 FY2026$1.2B-78.3%+15.3%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Net income attributable to commonQ4 FY2025$5.6B+221.1%+92.1%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Net income attributable to commonQ3 FY2025$1.7B-20.5%+628.5%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Net income attributable to commonQ2 FY2025$2.2B+108.0%+19.6%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Net income attributable to commonQ1 FY2025$1.1B-63.8%-34.3%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Net income attributable to commonQ4 FY2024$2.9B+983.3%-11.3%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Net income attributable to commonQ3 FY2024$-330M-118.0%-119.4%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Net income attributable to commonQ2 FY2024$1.8B+14.3%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Net income attributable to commonQ1 FY2024$1.6B-51.2%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Net income attributable to commonQ4 FY2023$3.3B+93.0%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Net income attributable to commonQ3 FY2023$1.7BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Operating cash flowQ2 FY2026$2.6B-49.8%+52.7%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Operating cash flowQ1 FY2026$5.2B+27.9%+18.3%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Operating cash flowQ4 FY2025$4B+31.1%-6.7%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Operating cash flowQ3 FY2025$3.1B+81.1%+6.9%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Operating cash flowQ2 FY2025$1.7B-61.1%-17.7%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Operating cash flowQ1 FY2025$4.4B+0.9%+4.8%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Operating cash flowQ4 FY2024$4.3B+50.3%-3.0%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Operating cash flowQ3 FY2024$2.9B+39.4%-5.7%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Operating cash flowQ2 FY2024$2.1B-50.4%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Operating cash flowQ1 FY2024$4.2B-6.6%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Operating cash flowQ4 FY2023$4.5B+46.1%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Operating cash flowQ3 FY2023$3.1BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
RevenueQ2 FY2026$17.2B+7.8%+1.1%Primary source (2026-07-22)
RevenueQ1 FY2026$15.9B-19.1%+9.5%Primary source (2026-04-22)
RevenueQ4 FY2025$19.7B+20.5%+12.2%Primary source (2026-01-28)
RevenueQ3 FY2025$16.3B-3.8%+9.1%Primary source (2025-10-22)
RevenueQ2 FY2025$17B+16.8%+7.7%Primary source (2025-07-23)
RevenueQ1 FY2025$14.5B-17.2%+0.5%Primary source (2025-04-23)
RevenueQ4 FY2024$17.6B+17.3%+1.0%Primary source (2025-01-29)
RevenueQ3 FY2024$15B-5.1%+1.5%Primary source (2024-10-23)
RevenueQ2 FY2024$15.8B+9.0%Primary source (2024-07-24)
RevenueQ1 FY2024$14.5B-16.8%Primary source (2024-04-24)
RevenueQ4 FY2023$17.4B+17.8%Primary source (2024-01-24)
RevenueQ3 FY2023$14.8BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Software revenueQ2 FY2026$7.8B+10.1%+5.1%Primary source (2026-07-22)
Software revenueQ1 FY2026$7.1B-21.9%+11.3%Primary source (2026-04-22)
Software revenueQ4 FY2025$9B+25.3%+14.0%Primary source (2026-01-28)
Software revenueQ3 FY2025$7.2B-2.4%+10.5%Primary source (2025-10-22)
Software revenueQ2 FY2025$7.4B+16.6%+9.6%Primary source (2025-07-23)
Software revenueQ1 FY2025$6.3B-20.0%+7.4%Primary source (2025-04-23)
Software revenueQ4 FY2024$7.9B+21.5%+5.5%Primary source (2025-01-29)
Software revenueQ3 FY2024$6.5B-3.2%+4.1%Primary source (2024-10-23)
Software revenueQ2 FY2024$6.7B+14.2%Primary source (2024-07-24)
Software revenueQ1 FY2024$5.9B-21.5%Primary source (2024-04-24)
Software revenueQ4 FY2023$7.5B+19.9%Primary source (2024-01-24)
Software revenueQ3 FY2023$6.3BPrimary source (2023-10-25)
Total debtQ2 FY2026$62BPrimary source (2026-07-23)

Thesis signals

Thesis pillars

  • Software durabilityRecurring Software economics sustain consolidated growth and margin quality through slower Consulting and infrastructure cycles.
  • Cash conversionProductivity and mix preserve annual free-cash-flow growth despite slower revenue and financing costs.
  • Capital-allocation disciplineDividends and acquisitions remain covered while debt and dilution stay compatible with a resilient investment-grade balance sheet.

Catalysts

  • Software-led cash confirmationSustained Software growth, stable gross margin and preserved 2026 free-cash-flow guidance would strengthen the base case.
  • Consulting stabilizationImproving Consulting demand and margin would reduce the main source of mix and execution pressure.

Risks

  • Growth and margin pressureQ2 2026 gross margin fell 110 basis points year over year, Infrastructure revenue fell 7.4%, and free cash flow fell 10.7%; the sequential rebound has not yet established durable annual improvement.
  • Acquisition and leverage opacityConfluent integration and acquired contribution are active, while deal-level cost and synergy attribution remains incomplete and total debt is USD 61.99 billion.
  • Valuation sensitivityThe intrinsic FCFF range is terminal-value sensitive; the static package therefore presents assumptions and scenario dispersion without a market-price comparison.

Monitoring triggers

  • Two-quarter Software decelerationTrigger when year-over-year Software revenue growth decelerates in two consecutive reported quarters.
  • Free-cash-flow guidance reductionTrigger when company-defined annual free-cash-flow guidance is withdrawn or falls below the FY2025 USD 14.7 billion baseline.
  • Gross-margin deteriorationTrigger when consolidated gross margin declines year over year in two consecutive reported quarters.

Evidence limits

Conflicts

  • None reported.

Gaps

  • None reported.

Public sources

  1. Primary source (2026-07-23)
  2. Primary source (2026-07-22)
  3. Primary source (2026-04-22)
  4. Primary source (2026-01-28)
  5. Primary source (2025-10-22)
  6. Primary source (2025-07-23)
  7. Primary source (2025-04-23)
  8. Primary source (2025-01-29)
  9. Primary source (2024-10-23)
  10. Primary source (2024-07-24)
  11. Primary source (2024-04-24)
  12. Primary source (2024-01-24)
  13. Primary source (2023-10-25)